The Reel Deal on Chuck Liddell

Hi everyone, today we're looking at Chuck Liddell, former UFC Light Heavyweight Champion, who takes on the former Middleweight Champion Rich Franklin this Saturday in Vancouver. The main event of UFC 115, Liddell was supposed to fight fellow Ultimate Fighter coach Tito Ortiz, but Ortiz was forced to drop out of bout for unknown reasons.

So how does this new match up suit the Iceman? Not well. Coming off of more than a year hiatus, Liddell will be facing a much younger fighter, and a former title holder at that. Looking at his last few fights, it really seems as if Liddell's best years are behind him. In his last fight, he was Knocked Out by current 205 pound champion Mauricio Shogun Rua in the first round.

Before that, he suffered KO defeats at the hands of Rashad Evans and Quinton Rampage Jackson. It seems like the Knockout artist we came to know and love is now being beaten at his own game. As his speed and power seem to fade, he was unable to finish off a struggling Wanderlei Silva back in 2007, and even lost to journeyman fighter Keith Jardine by Split Decision.

While everyone hopes for the Old Chuck to return to the cage, I fear that an Old Chuck is all we're going to get this saturday. Rich Franklin is a remarkably well-rounded fighter, and is famous for his unparallelled physical conditioning. While Franklin hasn't demonstrated the KO power to finish off top tier opponents, against an aging Hall of Famer, the fight is his to lose.

I predict Rich Franklin will beat Chuck Liddell by Unanimous Decision based on superiour offensive volume and physical conditioning.

UFC 107 Preview

Some quick picks for the fights tonight:

Kenny Florian v. Clay Guida

Florian, Round 3, Unanimous Decision

As much as I like Guida, I just don't think he has the tools to defeat Florian, who has better skills in just about every range of the fight. He'll frustrate Clay by sticking to the outside, and then threaten with submissions if Clay shoots for a takedown. Even without subs, Kenny has the skills to sweep for his own ground-and-pound in an dominant position. Clay's good, but I don't think he's at the same level as KenFlo.

Frank Mir v. Chiek Kongo

Mir, Round 2, Submission

Kongo is definitely the most dangerous striker in the UFC heavyweight division, but he doesn't have the skills to put him with the top fighters. As long as Frank doesn't try and prove his striking credentials by standing with Kongo, it should be a relatively easy night for him.

BJ Penn v. Diego Sanchez

Penn, Round 4, T/KO

Sanchez has certainly made a name for himself recently, but I'm still surprised to see him in title contention. I really don't think he's ever been in this kind of high-level fight before, and I don't see him winning in any way for this match. Penn has better skills standing, on the ground, and everything in-between. Sanchez says that he plans using his cardio to outlast the champ, but with BJ's much improved strength and conditioning program, I see that as a shaky strategy at best. I suppose anything can happen when BJ is fighting, but everything seems to be in his favor tonight.

UFC 106 Preview

I'm actually not too jazzed about this card.

Tito and Forrest doesn't feel like a super-fight, as Ortiz is coming out of retirement, and Griffin is coming off the worst loss of his career. I suppose it'll still be pretty good, but I feel like it's lacking some magic. Maybe watching the countdown will hype it up?

Koscheck and Johnson, another sort of gatekeeper fight. Both have done well, but aren't exactly big draws. Haven't heard anything of Koscheck for while, and I didn't even know Johnson existed until he came in 6 lbs overweight for his last fight a month ago.

Amir and Baroni is probably the best fight on the card. Amir is looking to get his career started in earnest, and Baroni is trying to keep his from ending. Should be interesting.

Cane and Lil Nog is cool, but Rogerio will forever live in Big Nog's shadow. Shame, really.

Karo and Hazelett sounded good at first, but then I realized Karo's been injured forever, then was suspended for painkillers after that. I'm as big a Karo fan as they come, but I feel like he's been out of the picture for far too long. Now with Karo out of the picture, I really can't think of any fights I'm excited for.

Know Thine Enemy

In two days, Manny Pacquiao, the Pound-for-Pound top boxer in the world, will fight Puerto Rican sensation Miguel Cotto for the WBO Welterweight belt. Having a lot of Filipino friends, it's only natural that I'll be rooting for Manny this Saturday. Still, let's take a closer look at his upcoming opponent.

Cotto is strong, and has lots of heart, which makes him a difficult opponent for anybody. He's tough to keep down, and has only one loss in his professional career. Furthermore, he's a downright terrifying in-fighter, and his body hooks can easily take the wind out of Manny's sails if our man isn't too careful. Still, as you can see from the video, there are significant holes in his game.

He gets hit a great deal, often relying on his tough chin to break through his opponent's punches in order to deal damage. This may not work on Manny too well, who's known for his blinding hand speed and agile footwork. Watch out for Pac-Man keeping him at bay with quick jabs to the face, followed by side-step and cross punches to the temple.

His main weapons are his Left Hook and his Right Straight. This is actually dangerous for Manny, being a southpaw (left-handed) fighter. A southpaw's right body side is closer to the left hook, and right straights are best for closing the distance against lefties. However, whereas Manny utilizes a variety of punches to confuse his opponent, Cotto has specialized these two weapons and used them in every fight. I have no doubt that Coach Roach has prepared Pacquiao to defend against them well. Watch out for some nasty counters against them.

Lastly, Cotto's shown himself to be a volatile fighter. When emotions run high, fight plans crumble. If Manny can frustrate him early in the fight, I see Cotto making serious errors in the later rounds. Capitalizing on these, a stellar knockout seems imminent.

I predict a 6th round KO by my man, the National Fist, the Fighting Pride of the Philippines, Manny Pacquiao.

UFC 102 Predictions

With UFC 102 on the horizon, I figured this would be a good time for my inaugural event prediction. While I’m certainly not a professional (at least, not yet), I like to consider myself pretty knowledgeable on fighters, camps, and mixed martial arts in general. I’m only going to go ahead and do the main card, because I’m not particularly familiar with a lot of the undercard fighters. Maybe when I know more of these guys I’ll do the undercard along with the main card. These picks are based on my own opinions, and you’re free to debate them with me in the comments.

Chris Leben vs. Jake Rosholt

Rosholt, Rd. 3 by Unanimous Dec

I’m not terribly fond of Leben as a fighter, I don’t think he’s ever really impressed me too much technically. He’s got a good wrestling base and can certainly bang it out, but I don’t think his wrestling is good enough against Rosholt’s, who is a three-time NCAA champ, and has been training with Xtreme Couture for a couple years now. On the other hand, Leben’s got tons more experience than Rosholt, and this will probably help him survive most of the fight. I see Rosholt dominating in the clinch, probably getting a lot of takedowns and some ground-and-pound, but I don’t think it’ll be enough to finish Leben off.

Brandon Vera vs. Krzysztof Socynski

Vera, Rd.3 by Unanimous Decision

Socynski is a very dangerous challenge for Vera, who’s just getting out of a huge slump in his career. Socynski hits hard, has a great top game, and even if he doesn’t have the best jiu-jitsu, he’s probably got the Kimura as good as any black belt. Vera, however, is no stranger to hard-hitters, going the distance against Tim Sylvia, who’s one of the biggest fighters the UFC has ever seen. I think Vera’s kickboxing is better than Socynski’s, and I don’t know if Socynski will be able to power through for a takedown. I think the fight will stay standing, and we’ll see Vera pull off a dominant victory.

Nate Marquart vs. Demian Maia

Maia, Rd.1 by Submission

If you asked me a week ago about this fight, I would have told you that Marquart would keep the fight standing and maybe even score a TKO or decision victory. But after watching UFC’s 102 Countdown, I think Nate’s got a bit chip on his shoulder about people disrespecting his ground game. It’s not that his jiu-jitsu is bad; it’s just that Maia’s is so much better. I think he’s going to try and prove something by tangling with Maia on the ground in the first round (probably after a Maia sweep or takedown), and then getting caught by a submission. If Marquart keeps his cool, I do think he can pose a big threat to Maia with his big power and clinch fighting.

Keith Jardine vs. Thiago Silva

Silva, Rd.2 by KO

Jardine’s a great fighter, and is very difficult to train for, but I really do see Silva just walking right through him. Silva went on a 13-fight winning streak (with 10 knockouts and 2 submissions, one to ground-and-pound) before finally losing to Lyoto Machida, who happens to be the current champion and one of the top pound-for-pound fighters in the world.

A lot of people talk about how Jardine’s beaten some of the best in the world, with wins over Griffin, Liddel, and Vera, but he’s also lost to top fighters like Jackson, Wanderlei, and Houston Alexander. All of the fighters he lost to were very similar to Silva, packing big power in the hands and constantly pushing the action. Silva may not have faced the very best in the division, but judging by his record, I’d say he belongs up there with them.

Randy Couture vs. Antonio Rodrigo “Minotauro” Nogueira

Couture, Rd.3 by T/KO

Tough fight to call, for sure. Two living legends, the very best of the sport. On one hand, Couture has incredible power in his hands and is one of the best wrestling-style fighters in the world. Incredible endurance and conditioning, coupled the ability to use the Greco-Roman clinch to wear down his opponents, makes him the winner of just about any war of attrition. No one doubts the fighting ability of this 46 year old, and anyone who does should try spending even just one round wrestling with him.

However, even after all that’s said and done, Nogueira is probably the only person able to take everything Couture can dish out, and then still throw some crazy armbar or leglock for a tide-turning victory. If you’ve seen his fights in Pride, Nogueira has taken punches from people like Dan Henderson, Fedor, and Tim Sylvia, and even a full-on head kick from Mirko Cro-Cop, and still can keep on fighting. The first time that Nogueria was ever knocked out was by Frank Mir last year, after ten years and 37 fights. Granted, we haven’t seen Nogueira at the top of his game lately, and it’s possible that all the punishment he’s taken is catching up with him. But if we do see a strong and well-conditioned Nogueira tomorrow night, I can guarantee that Couture will have his hands full trying to stop this man. I think Couture has the tools and conditioning to beat Nogueira eventually, but I feel like it’s going to go all the way down to the wire before he can finish him, if he can at all.