Kenny Florian v. Clay Guida
Florian, Round 3, Unanimous Decision
As much as I like Guida, I just don't think he has the tools to defeat Florian, who has better skills in just about every range of the fight. He'll frustrate Clay by sticking to the outside, and then threaten with submissions if Clay shoots for a takedown. Even without subs, Kenny has the skills to sweep for his own ground-and-pound in an dominant position. Clay's good, but I don't think he's at the same level as KenFlo.
Frank Mir v. Chiek Kongo
Mir, Round 2, Submission
Kongo is definitely the most dangerous striker in the UFC heavyweight division, but he doesn't have the skills to put him with the top fighters. As long as Frank doesn't try and prove his striking credentials by standing with Kongo, it should be a relatively easy night for him.
BJ Penn v. Diego Sanchez
Penn, Round 4, T/KO
Sanchez has certainly made a name for himself recently, but I'm still surprised to see him in title contention. I really don't think he's ever been in this kind of high-level fight before, and I don't see him winning in any way for this match. Penn has better skills standing, on the ground, and everything in-between. Sanchez says that he plans using his cardio to outlast the champ, but with BJ's much improved strength and conditioning program, I see that as a shaky strategy at best. I suppose anything can happen when BJ is fighting, but everything seems to be in his favor tonight.